I remember the days when everyone knew that earning your college degree would guarantee you a good job.  It was practically a universal truth when I was growing up and as such, I believe it helped to fuel years of increasing college enrollments.  Unfortunately, so many individuals are graduating with college degrees now that a college degree today almost represents what a high school diploma did many decades ago.  This in and of itself wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing, but the cost to attend college continues to skyrocket.  Additionally, higher ed has experienced significant volatility over the past several years.  From declining enrollments (at most institutions), to budget constraints, declining student success rates, political threats to tenure, accreditation, and curriculum, and hiring challenges as individuals continue to leave higher ed in droves, then throw in a pandemic that sparks a mental health crisis….  On top of all of this, students are demanding improved technology, broader access to courses (in-person and online), and better support structures.  Has higher ed reached a tipping point?

To be clear, I am a firm believer in the power of education to level the socioeconomic playing field.  College graduates still earn significantly more over their lifetime that individuals with only a high school diploma.  However, we know that college costs are at an all time high as public funding for higher education continues to decrease and colleges are forced to raise prices to cover expenses.  Student loan debt continues to hit new milestones, recently surpassed $1.6 trillion owed by roughly 43 million borrowers according to a recent Forbes article.  We also know that the six-year graduation rate is hovering around 63%.  This means that 37% of individuals who begin college don’t finish within 6 years.  In 2022 I Grad reported that 38% of students drop out of college due to finances and according to the US Education Department, about 60% of student loan borrowers lack a four-year degree.  We also need to consider the fact that higher education hasn’t truly changed structurally in decades.  It still relies on antiquated processes and structures that impede growth.

This brings me back to the title of this post – have we reached the tipping point in higher education?  A recent article in Inside Higher Ed shared results of a Wall Street Journal poll where 56% of respondents don’t believe that college is worth the cost…and they could be correct.  We know that individuals who attend college to become doctors, lawyers, and engineers will likely be able to justify the costs.  However, recent shortages in professions like teaching and social work may suggest that incurring considerable debt to earn these sorts of credentials is no longer worth it when you consider how underpaid and under-appreciated individuals working in these sectors can be.  As a nation, we may have come back to the point where 4-year degrees are only accessible for the wealthy or the most academically gifted individuals.  It feels like, as a society, we’re ok with that because most Americans tend to think about education as something that benefits an individual – which is completely opposite of how most other cultures view education.  Outside of the US, cultures value having a well educated citizenry which is why education is so heavily subsidized in those countries.

What is next for higher education in the US? As we continue to see declining enrollments, will schools try to backfill the shortfall with individuals who aren’t academically prepared and are likely to struggle academically and financially?  Will we continue with our current policies that result in thousands of low-income students moving backwards socioeconomically as they incur student loan debt without earning a credential?  Will we continue to see lines blurred between politics and education where governors and legislatures without academic experience, knowledge and skills can threaten educational systems and dictate policy with impunity?  Are we on the brink of seeing our educational system collapse?  Only time will tell.  Fortunately, the world of education is surrounded by companies, non-profits and individuals committed to making a quality education accessible to all.  With considerable growth in the educational technology sector, we are seeing the development of products that can help solve some of the problems that schools are facing.  Non-profits continue to drive valuable research around teaching and learning, technology, and educational policy.  Lastly, we are starting to see some systems re-think the way they are organized and function.  This tipping point could cause a paradigm shift that is long overdue in higher ed if it results in a more equitable system that is accessible to anyone who truly wants to learn and grow.